SOL Price Prediction: Technical Breakout Potential Amid Mixed Fundamentals

#SOL

• Technical Strength: Trading above 20-day MA with improving MACD momentum suggests near-term bullish bias
• Institutional Support: $500K legal defense donation demonstrates strong ecosystem commitment and institutional backing
• Revenue Concerns: 44% Q2 revenue decline despite DeFi TVL growth presents fundamental challenges that need monitoring

SOL Price Prediction

Technical Analysis: SOL Shows Bullish Momentum Above Key Moving Average

SOL is currently trading at $201.23, positioned above its 20-day moving average of $193.60, indicating underlying bullish momentum. The MACD reading of -7.14, though negative, shows improving momentum with a positive histogram of 0.39. Price action remains within the Bollinger Bands range of $172.61 to $214.58, suggesting consolidation with potential for upward breakout. According to BTCC financial analyst Robert, 'The technical setup favors continued strength as long as SOL holds above the $193 support level.'

Mixed Sentiment with Strong Institutional Support Despite Revenue Challenges

Market sentiment for SOL presents a complex picture. The solana Policy Institute's $500K legal defense donation for Tornado Cash developers demonstrates strong ecosystem support, while positive price predictions targeting $275-$280 provide optimistic momentum. However, Q2 revenue declining 44% despite DeFi TVL growth raises fundamental concerns. BTCC financial analyst Robert notes, 'Institutional backing and technical breakouts are positive, but investors should monitor whether revenue trends can catch up with valuation expectations.'

Factors Influencing SOL's Price

Solana Policy Institute Backs Tornado Cash Devs with $500K Legal Defense Donation

The Solana Policy Institute has committed $500,000 to support the legal defense of Tornado Cash co-founders Roman Storm and Alexey Pertsev, marking a significant stand for privacy rights in cryptocurrency. The developers face charges of money laundering and sanctions violations, with Storm convicted in the U.S. and Pertsev in the Netherlands. Their cases could set a precedent for software development liability globally.

Privacy advocates warn the prosecutions threaten innovation, arguing that holding developers accountable for misuse of neutral tools could stifle the industry. The outcome is being closely monitored by crypto stakeholders, as it may influence future regulatory approaches to decentralized technology.

Solana Price Prediction: Technical Support Eyes $275 Breakout

Solana's market behavior reveals strengthening bullish signals, with on-chain metrics and chart patterns suggesting potential upward momentum. The cryptocurrency has demonstrated notable resilience near critical support levels during a period of sideways movement across the broader digital asset market.

Glassnode's MVRV deviation bands indicate $210 serves as a pivotal level for SOL, corresponding with both the mean price and historical breakout support. A sustained hold above this threshold could propel the asset toward the next key resistance at $275, where profit-taking has previously emerged.

Technical analysts observe SOL breaking out from an ascending triangle pattern, with the $210 breach confirming the formation. Fibonacci extensions suggest an initial target near $240, though sustained buying pressure could extend gains toward the $275 benchmark.

ZachXBT Links New Web3 Token Project to Squiggles NFT Scammers

Blockchain investigator ZachXBT has issued a stark warning about a new token project called Web3, which employs a controversial deposit-for-airdrop strategy. The project has been linked to individuals behind the 2022 Squiggles NFT scam, a $20 million rug pull that used shadow wallets to inflate trading volume.

Web3's presale model mirrors the infamous Book of Meme (BOME) approach from 2024, requiring users to send SOL tokens to an address in exchange for airdropped tokens. ZachXBT identified connections between Web3's team and previous fraudulent operations, including Squiggles NFT and Raichu.

The deposit-for-airdrop method has gained notoriety in crypto circles as a potential red flag for scams. This alert comes as Web3 prepares for its token distribution on August 27, raising concerns about investor protection in the largely unregulated crypto space.

Solana Q2 Revenue Declines 44% Despite DeFi TVL Surge

Solana's blockchain revenue plummeted 44.2% in Q2 2025, dropping to $576.4 million from $1 billion in Q1, according to Messari data. The decline reflects weakened performance across key decentralized applications, with PumpFun—the network's top revenue generator—seeing a 43.9% quarterly contraction.

Contrasting the trend, Axiom's revenue skyrocketed 641.3% to $126.6 million, while Jupiter, a major DeFi aggregator, experienced a 15.6% dip. Phantom wallet and Photon posted declines of 65.4% and 72.4%, respectively.

Despite the revenue slump, Solana's DeFi sector demonstrated strength, with total value locked (TVL) climbing 30.4% to $8.6 billion—solidifying its position as the second-largest DeFi ecosystem.

Solana Price Path to $280, Fluctuates At $208

Solana (SOL) has shown remarkable resilience in August, initially climbing before retracing to form a series of peaks on the chart. The cryptocurrency faces repeated rejections near the $213–230 resistance zone, currently trading around $208. Despite the short-term volatility, SOL has surged 47.2% year-to-date, outpacing the broader crypto market's 0.8% gain with a 4.2% daily increase.

Retail sentiment has reached an 11-week high, with bullish chatter dominating social platforms at a 5.8:1 ratio. This optimism, last seen in June, could provide the momentum needed to break through key resistance levels. The path to $280 hinges on a combination of retail participation, derivatives activity, and spot market flows.

Is SOL a good investment?

SOL presents a compelling investment case with several positive technical and fundamental factors. The current price of $201.23 trading above the 20-day MA suggests bullish momentum, while institutional support through the $500K legal defense fund demonstrates ecosystem strength. However, the 44% Q2 revenue decline cannot be ignored.

For risk-tolerant investors, SOL offers attractive technical setup and ecosystem growth potential, though revenue trends warrant careful monitoring.